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Global Warming and Malthusianism  
Wednesday, November 28th, 2007


Photo from National Geographic:
Pictures of a Warming World, 2004

Guest Blog:

Brad Arnold

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Malthusianism:  Malthus' (Thomas Robert 1766-1834) theory that population tends to increase faster than food supply.

"Populations tend to increase at a geometrical rate, whereas the means of subsistence increases at just an arithmetical rate.  Without the checks of disease, famine, and war, human populations will double their size every 25 years."  (Malthusianism)

The world's population reached 1 billion for the first time in 1830.  It took 120 years to double to 2 billion, and just 30 years to reach 3 billion.  The world's population is now over 6 billion people.

Our increased means of subsistence is due to technology and a climate favorable for agriculture.  Modern medicine, industrialized farming, and use of fossil fuel have reduced disease and famine.  Furthermore, we've enjoyed an exceptionally mild climate period called the Holocene.

Most of the 80 million extra each year are born into developing countries least able to support the added population.  The demographic divide between the rich developed countries and the poor developing countries is reflected in vast disparities of living standards, health, and economic prospects.

The Earth is warming up due to mankind's greenhouse gas emissions and the degredation of ecosystems.  With business as usual, it is predicted that emissions will increase over 50% while ecosystems' ability to remove it from the air will decrease 30% by 2030.

In other words, it is predictable that our means of subsistence will decline due to global warming.  This threatens not just those alive today, but future generations, too.  Rich countries will be able to adapt, but poor countries won't be able to support their population.

  We should facilitate, instead of foolishly and vainly endeavoring to impeded, the operation of nature in producing mortality; and if we dread the too-frequent visitation of the horrid form of famine, we should sedulously encourage other forms of destruction which we compel nature to use.  Instead of recommending cleanliness to the poor, we should encourage contrary habits.  In our towns we should make the streets narrower, crowding more people into the houses, and court the return of the plague.  In the country we should build our villages near stagnant pools, and particularly encourage settlements in all marsy and unwholesome situations."  (Malthus, founder of Malthusianism)

Most leaders understand that as we continue business as usual emissions, we are killing billions of people by reducing their means of subsistence.  Yet, the US (responsible for about 30% of mankind's greenhouse gas emissions) chooses to fight against mandatory emission cuts.

It is as if the Bush administration is practicing Malthusianism.  On the other hand (since you shouldn't attribute to maliciousness what you can attribute to stupidity), it could be that the Bush administration doesn't realize business as usual emissions will kill billions, mostly in poor countries.

The US is implicitly waging a war on poor countries by obstructing mandatory emission cuts.

 
Guest Blog submitted by Brad Arnold, myspace.com/dobermanmacleod.
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